The deadlock regarding the extension of the agreement on strategic offensive weapons and the breakup of the Soviet-the American contract of 1987 on liquidation of intermediate-and shorter-range missiles (INF Treaty) suggests that the era of bilateral agreements on nuclear arms control between Russia and the USA coming to an end, this creates the preconditions for a new stage of nuclear escalation. To such conclusion experts of the Stockholm Institute for peace studies (SIPRI). Annual report published on the website of the Institute on June 15.
“The loss of key channels of communication between Russia and the United States, which contributed to the transparency and to prevent misconceptions about the nuclear Arsenal of each other, can potentially lead to a new nuclear arms race”, – said the Director of the SIPRI programme on nuclear disarmament, verification and non-proliferation of weapons Shannon Kyle.
On the one hand, in the world the tendency to reduction of nuclear potential: now armed with the nine-power is 13 400 nuclear warheads, whereas a year ago it was 13 865. This is due to the destruction of obsolete stocks; at the same time the US and Russia and China are modernizing their weapons.
“In Russia and the United States implemented an ambitious and expensive program to replace and modernize nuclear warheads, delivery systems and missiles and aircraft and facilities for the production of nuclear weapons. Both countries also took new or expanded roles for nuclear weapons in their military doctrines, which marks a significant change in trend of gradual marginalization of nuclear weapons. Nuclear arsenals of other States is much smaller, but all of these States either are developing or adopting new weapons or have announced their intention to do so. The first time that China is developing so-called nuclear triad, consisting of new ICBMs and SLBMs, as well as aircraft carrying nuclear weapons,” the report says.
Analysts described as a dangerous phenomenon, the desire of leading nuclear countries to classify data about their potential. USA 2019 publish updated data, of the information coded in the UK and France. Russia, according to bilateral treaties, provides information to the States, but does not publish it in open access. There is no reliable data about the nuclear program of North Korea. but Israel traditionally classify their projects in the nuclear sector, the authors of the publication.
The new start Treaty entered into force in 2011. It provides for the reduction of nuclear warheads the US and Russia to 1,550, Intercontinental ballistic missiles, ballistic missile submarines and heavy bombers to 700 units. The contract is for 10 years with a possible extension for another five. The next round of negotiations on the extension of the agreement is scheduled for June 22.
February 1, 2019, the Secretary of state Mike Pompeo announced the U.S. withdrawal from the INF Treaty. The next day, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that in response to the U.S. withdrawal from the INF Treaty it comes from Russia. July 3, Putin signed a law on the suspension of the agreement. On 2 August the United States officially withdrew from the Treaty on the elimination of intermediate-range and shorter-range.