By the way, with regard to Russia I have the following suggestion.
If the quarantine is introduced in order to avoid overloading the national healthcare system, this means that it makes sense only if the reserve capacity of this system is really significant in relation to the total number of infected and in need of medical aid people, right?
For example, if the system can simultaneously serve 100 people, but with quarantine, we have reduced the number of simultaneously needing her services with 200 to 70, then quarantine is justified.
He even justified in the case where we have reduced this number from 200 to 120. Although the overflow amounted to 20 people, however, 80 quarantine saved. Saved or not, but at least gave me the opportunity to take advantage of the qualified medical aid, and then – as lucky.
But if (let’s take our example) we are using the quarantine has reduced the number of simultaneously requiring medical assistance patients from 20 thousand to 10 thousand, but the capacity of the health system – all the same 100 people, the quarantine does not make sense: 100 people the system will serve, and all the other people are left to themselves.
That is, even with the quarantine, though no, we get a system overflow almost immediately and all men over the capabilities of the system still remain without medical aid, even if formally they will be put in the hospital and see a doctor.
By the way, in the hospital in this case to be just and not dangerous, because if you were hospitalized in error or for another reason, you’re still there to catch it, and adequate health care – not getting it.
You can argue: but the number of patients as a result of quarantine has been halved: from 20 thousand to 10 thousand! No, I’d say. 20 thousand and 10 thousand is only the number of people simultaneously requiring medical assistance.
Let me remind you that the quarantine is not protects you from infection, but only stretches the epidemic in time. Many people forget about that and poke my nose with statistics showing a slowing of the epidemic as a result of quarantine. Therefore, all who are destined to be infected, – infected, just a little later.
Since it is obvious that the Russian health care system (due to its complete collapse) was crowded for almost the day after the beginning of the epidemic, that further hospitalization to anything good will not. As a continuation of the quarantine. Still the vast majority of infected people adequately will not get help and can only rely on your immune system and luck.
And once the quarantine for these purposes is absolutely useless, it is at the forefront of the economic and social damage that it causes. And the longer it lasts, the more the damage.
And well if this damage was compensated by lives saved. So in fact no… It is simply harmful on the one hand and useless on the other.
It is significant that the quarantine does not make sense in another situation. When, for example, the system can process 30 thousand people, and even at the peak, without quarantine, it would need only 20 thousand This is the case with Germany…
After taking into account new data on the mortality rate (not 2% and 0.5%), contagiousness (not 2.5 at the peak, and 1.4 V peak) and coverage of population infection (80% and a maximum of 30-50%) projected number of people in need of medical care patients (despite the fact that at least 80% of infected asymptomatic carries of infection) is reduced at times…
Source: Alfred Koch / Facebook