The Bank of Spain predicts that by the end of 2020 because of the epidemic of the coronavirus and the related stop the industry of the country’s GDP will fall by 9% in the favorable scenario and 11.6%, if the authorities will again have to enter a quarantine due to the outbreak of a new disease. This is stated in the forecast, published on 8 June on the website of the Spanish Central Bank.
The regulator has developed two possible scenarios for the economic recovery. First – “early recovery scenario” – suggests that the economy will start to grow in the second quarter and “goes on without any significant new obstacles”. In this case, the drop of GDP by the end of the year will be 9%. In the next two years, the Central Bank forecasts growth of 7.7% and 2.4% – in this case, by the end of 2022 the GDP of Spain is about 0.5 percentage points above the pre-crisis level.
The second scenario – the Spanish regulator calls it a “scenario of gradual recovery,” suggests that before the end of this year, Spain will have more time to introduce restrictive measures for new outbreaks. In this case, in 2020 the GDP will fall by 11.6%, and over the next two years will increase in total by 11.2% and by 1.6 percentage points lower than it was before the crisis.
As noted by Reuters, in the first quarter of 2020 the Spanish economy has already fallen 5.2 percent, which was the sharpest decline since 1970. The current GDP contraction, indicates the Agency, twice the worst performance since the global financial crisis of 2008-2009.
Flash coronavirus infection COVID-19 began in late 2019 in China. March 11, 2020, the world health organization declared the spread of the coronavirus pandemic. Just a world of information at Johns Hopkins University, ill more than 7 million people, more than 403 thousand of them died, 3.15 million recovered. Spain has infected more than 240 thousand people, 27 thousand of them died, more than 150 thousand already recovered.