The international rating Agency S&P Global Ratings predicts drop in the world economy in 2020 to 2.4% in pandemic coronavirus. The updated forecast, the Agency published on 16 April.
In 2019, the world economy grew by 2.9%. Previously, S&P assumed that in 2020 the growth will be 0.4%.
“The impact of COVID-19 on the economy longer and more intense than expected, and again we have lowered our macroeconomic forecasts. Now we expect a fall in global GDP of 2.4% this year and the decline of the US economy and the Eurozone 5.2% and 7.3% respectively,” the report says.
At the same time, the economies of China and India, according to analysts of the Agency, will grow this year by 1.2% and 1.8% , respectively.
S&P predicts that after 2020 the world economy will begin to recover, and expects that in 2021 the world GDP will grow by 5.9%, and in 2022 – in is 3.9%.
The Agency noted that although the immediate prospects look bleak, the curves of growth of the number infected have been blurred, therefore,”the focus shifted to recovery.”
“The duration and the pace will depend on a combination of steps in the field of health care and the economy, the reaction of people and companies, as well as the state of the labor market and small and medium enterprises. The balance of risks remains negative, as a lot can go wrong with our baseline projection in the field of health, Economics and policy”, warned S&P.
The international monetary Fund expects the global economy in 2020 by 3%. This is more than during the financial crisis of 2008-2009. In 2021, according to the forecast Fund, the global economy is expected to grow by 5.8 per cent.
The managing Director of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva said that the Fund predicts the worst outcome for the global economy with a 30-ies of XX century.
“Just three months ago, we expected growth of income per capita to more than 160 of our member countries in 2020. That figure has now turned on its head: we now predict that more than 170 countries will experience a decline in income per capita this year”, – said the head of the IMF.
The world trade organization predicts drop in world trade at the level of 13-32% in 2020.
Flash coronavirus infection COVID-19 began in China in December 2019. March 11, the world health organization declared the spread of the coronavirus pandemic. Because of the rapid spread of the disease, many countries have introduced strict quarantine, business activity in the world decreased significantly.