Singapore scientists abandoned their forecasts on the timing of the end of the pandemic

The Singapore University of technology and design removed from the site statistical forecast of development of the pandemic COVID-19 and asked to consider their previous calculations invalid.

“The model and the data did not meet the complex, the changing and heterogeneous realities of different countries. Forecasts uncertain by their nature. Readers should take them with caution. Excessive optimism based on some predictions, is dangerous because it may weaken the discipline and control and lead to further spread of infection, what to avoid”, – stated in the message of may 11.

Predictions of the life cycle of the epidemic are fundamental to action planning countries and societies, but they are also difficult due to the complexity of the dynamics of a global pandemic, recognized scientists.

“Traditional methods of forecasting, the purpose of which is to make an accurate prediction of the future, can be misleading in this highly uncertain context,” the report says.

In April, Singapore the Institute has published charts of the epidemic for 131 countries. To generate the prediction used the so-called SIR-model, “susceptible, become infected, infected recover.” According to scientists, the pandemic had finally faded out in January 2021. In Ukraine, new cases of coronavirus, according to the forecast, had to stop to fix in July 2020.

Flash coronavirus infection COVID-19 began in late 2019 in the Chinese city of Wuhan. March 11, 2020, the world health organization declared the spread of the coronavirus pandemic.

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