Expert: a week possible surge COVID-19

The effect of quarantine measures against the spread of coronavirus COVID-19 will appear in the 20 days of April. But it may overlap a surge in the incidence because of the crowds at the entrance to the Moscow metro, which was observed April 15 – the first day checking electronic passes.

To assess the effectiveness of measures taken, need to experience at least 1.5-2 quarantine period, — the Deputy Director on scientific work of the Central research Institute of epidemiology of Rospotrebnadzor, Aleksandr Gorelov in the course of the online conference “the Latest news of pharmaceutical industry and antivirus investments” on April 16.

He also noted that the dynamics of morbidity in Russia is lagging behind Europe for 2-4 weeks.

“When we reach a plateau, it will not mean that quarantine measures need to cancel: sick as she was, and will remain infectious to others” warned epidemiologist.

According to him, 70% of people infected COVID -19, ill at 5-7-th day after exposure, less than 10% on the 2nd day and about 5% to 12-13 ill day.

He confirmed that the surge in the incidence occurred just a week later after the background of a declared head of state holidays, there was a mass exit of citizens in parks and “a barbecue”.

In turn, the surge in the incidence possible in the early 20-th of April, i.e. a week after the appearance of the queue to the subway associated with the test electronic passes 15 April, in the morning rush hour. Alexander Gorelov has confirmed the likelihood of this and added that 10% of people carrying the virus in asymptomatic contagious.

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